又係雜記

好似好耐冇寫，但其實去咗Facebook寫...

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1. 渣打銀行 (24.10.2007)

Standard Chartered Bank (2888) is good alternative to those expensive banking stocks in China. Almost all of its earning come from Hong Kong, Korea, India, SE Asia and Middle East. The profit growth is about 15% in the past few years. The management is solid. The company is skillful in M&A deals. A good company with bright prospect. The price is not expensive now at about $250 - $260. Stupid people may feel that the share price is very high, but in fact the expected P/E ratio for year 2007 is only about 16 to 17, and the P/B ratio is about 2.7. Quite reasonable for a bank in emerging markets. The market cap is about US$ 300 billion, much lower than HSBC and other Chinese banking stocks. The dividend rate is about 2%. The size of one lot (手) is only 50, so the price for 1 lot is only about $13000, much lower than HSBC (5) which is about $58000. I have studied this bank for sometime and relevant news can be found in my blog:

http://wheel-co-news.blogspot.com/search/label/%E6%B8%A3%E6%89%93%E9%8A%80%E8%A1%8C

This stock does not perform very well in the past few months. Because most money in the market rushed to buy Chinese stocks. But in long term I guess this stock can generate good return. I even speculate that Stanchart will outperform HSBC in the future in term of stock investment, because Stanchart is actively conducting M&A, which is following the path of HSBC in 1970-1990's.

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2. 新聞透視之全民皆股 (19.10.2007)

Watch 新聞透視 yesterday evening, talk about 全民皆股. The programme interviewed a guy called himself (other stupid people called him?) 元朗股神. Can't see any special ability from his interview. Only an active speculator. Also interview a blogger called...(之後內容唔出得街)

Feel a bit uneasy after watching, but I only hold good businesses and they were bought at low price. Need some careful review for further action, or non-action...

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3. Crash of Bubble (7.10.2007)

I guess the bubble will grow to HSI 38000, then the bubble will burst and HSI will fall at least 50% to 19000. When HSI reach 19000, it will be safe to divide the money into three parts and buy chips at different stages. It will be good to buy more if the price falls further. At that moment, people will be hesitate to buy stocks because the market will be full of pessimistic news. Those stupid people will then wait and wait and miss that good chance. Check if I can guess correctly...

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4. Alibaba

The whole family of my wife (father-in-law, mother-in-law, grandma-in-law, aunt-in-law...) applied for IPO of Alibaba. Of course they don't know what the business of the company is. My father-in-law said Alibaba is "鬼佬搶錢". Horrible!!! 全民皆股!!! Red Alert!!!